I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of
2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: The Return of Ground-Based Air Defense
In case you missed it on Substack: The Short But Exciting Life of the Russian Fleet
Last week I noted foreigners masquerading as angry Americans who fan the flames of our divisions. The most insulting part may be that this isn't ideological as much as it is done for monetary profit. Are we living in a Star Trek episode? We're that stupid, apparently. Tip to Instapundit.
Europeans will fight--but the question is how long will it take to put enough into uniform and then train and equip them. I've wondered how to get to the latter. But have long said they will fight.
LOL: "Tension between Pakistan and Afghanistan continues because Islamic
terrorists continue to attack Pakistan from bases in Afghanistan." I wish Pakistan good luck if defeating the terrorists. But Pakistan sustained the Taliban and al Qaeda (remember where we killed bin Laden?) while we fought there.
Just going to note that "military engagement" with Nigeria is not military action against Nigeria in regard to protecting Christians from slaughter, kidnapping, and religious cleansing in the north.
If someone in the military does something bad, the Early Bird Brief by Defense News and Military Times is on it! "An Air Force service member is one of two Texas men accused of trying to
seize control of a Haitian island in a violent coup and plotting to
enslave its population." But this is a broader problem.
Put that in a shipping container and I'll be seriously impressed: "The Army is experimenting with an autonomous dining facility in South Korea and the chow line might never look the same."
Reminding China it does not in fact own that sea: "Japan-based USS George Washington (CVN-73) entered the South
China Sea via the Luzon Strait on Nov. 17 following the departure of the
Nimitz Carrier Strike Group on the same day."
Makes sense for base defense: "The Air Force wants to adapt the laser-guided rockets it currently
mounts on fighter aircraft for targeting swarms of small drones for use
from the ground." But I's still like A-Whacks.
Is this solar-powered USV a candidate for persistent surveillance or attack? "A small unmanned surface vessel called the Lightfish made a new
milestone for USVs when it arrived in Portugal just over two months
after being launched by the U.S. Navy in June."
I doubt fiber-optic drone leaving trails of fiber-optic lines is really a useful asset for the FBI.
Iron Dome interceptors can now be produced in America.
Estonia wants more HIMARS.
Israel created another high-ranking Hezbollah good jihadi in Beirut.
Urban warfare includes the below-ground terrain. Whoever has to fight in Urban terrain needs to fight for all the terrain.
South Korea's marines still practice amphibious assault.
Nigeria: "Gunmen have kidnapped more than 300 students and teachers in one of the largest mass kidnappings in Nigeria, a Christian group said on Saturday[.]" If they're lucky they are just for ransoming.
As the 25th Infantry Division practices new ways to fight, its "new HIMARS rocket launchers shot down 'enemy' drones." Well that's interesting. What does the HIMARS fire for that mission?
While the Saudis will get some F-35s, the Saudis won't get the most advanced weapons and systems. And the Saudis rely on foreign maintenance. The Saudis once matched the Israelis with the F-15 aircraft. So I think the biggest regional effect will be Iran knowing the Saudis could do what Israel and America did.
Is the Long Peace at risk of ending? One risk is that the very absence of great power war means we forget the cost. Yet America was never happy with casualties at any level. And Russia is getting a painful lesson now. Certainly, the Cold War ended and the Russian Decline Era ended. Fingers crossed in our current era.
But they are employed in "limited" numbers: "Russia has been launching jet-powered drones and guided bombs in attacks against Ukraine." Can they be numerous? I've noted that making cheap drones more capable increases costs and reduces numbers.
Horn of Africa: "A volcano in Ethiopia's northeastern region erupted for the first time
in nearly 12,000 years, sending thick plumes of smoke up to nine miles
into the sky[.]" Ominous, given regional tensions.
This has national security implications: "On the Internet, nobody knows you’re a dog fraud."
The Army works to expand the net of counter-drone defenses. Volume is needed. We likely need specialists rather than burdening combat troops unduly with drone missions.
Putting the force in Space Force.
The rising sun approaches China: "A plan to station surface-to-air missiles on an island within sight of
Taiwan is “steadily progressing,” Japan’s defense minister said Sunday amid heightened tensions with China." Blowback. Japan is not so easily bullied.
When Russia ends its invasion of Ukraine, Russia will turn its aggression against NATO with means short of general war. I explored one high-end, non-"war" scenario targeting Narva, Estonia in Army magazine.
Can America and India team up to build ammunition for both? We'd need common artillery, of course.
How an enemy fifth column steals from Minnesota's compassion industry complex to fund overseas terrorists. Tip to Instapundit.
Members of Congress who publicly warned troops and spooks not to obey illegal orders from the president could not name an actual illegal order that was given. That's odd considering Orange Hitler has an entire first term to mine. The political stunt just weakens the chain of command. Via Instapundit.
AI at war: "[The] current war in Gaza is fought with the Israelis using automation,
sensors and software together in a system which identifies what the
enemy is about to do, and what Israeli airstrikes or ground combat
actions will best defeat Hamas with minimal civilian casualties."
Hmm. Since the Russians are slowly advancing, isn't any mineclearing problem in Ukraine in Russian-occupied territory? Is the problem from three years ago still a major issue for Ukraine?
Uh oh: "In a future war against China or other advanced adversary, Air Force units may have to keep operating for days, weeks, or longer, while being cut off from reinforcements, resupply or even communications." But don't worry about the Marines, eh?
The U.S. Marines rely on Australia for operating against China. The first seeds for this employment were planted in 2012. Of course, the Marines changed a lot from what I expected back then. How will Australia deal with this
Russia has modified their Iskander missiles to evade Ukrainian air defenses. Can Ukraine and its Western allies respond to that?
Taiwan barely defends itself, so claiming Taiwanese are unsure of America's reliability as the source of their problem is ridiculous. Especially since America is clearly preparing to defend Taiwan. Honestly, Taiwanese should worry more about themselves.
Given that it is in America's interest to keep Russia from taking Ukraine, it is absurd to claim Taiwan's choice of Gripen and Rafale fighters rather than F-16s betrays America. The Gripen is better suited to dispersed operations under fire. And Europeans will pay for Ukraine's air force.
You silly Yanks with your written Bill of Rights! Oh: "Justice Secretary David Lammy is proposing to massively restrict the
ancient right to a jury trial by only guaranteeing it for defendants
facing rape, murder, manslaughter or other cases passing a public
interest test." Tip to Instapundit.
Russian paranoia creates what they fear: "President Emmanuel Macron said he will announce a new military service aimed at boosting French army numbers later this week."
I don't think Senator Kelly should be subject to the UCMJ for his participation in the "disobey orders" video. He and the others were wrong to send that message. But he is a sitting member of Congress.
Mowing the jihadi grass: "The number of AFRICOM airstrikes in Somalia this year far exceeds that
of all previous years and is on a pace to potentially double the
previous one-year high of 63 carried out in 2019."
Qatar gathers friends: "More than 1,300 military personnel from the U.S., Qatar, Italy, United
Kingdom, Turkey and France participated in Exercise Ferocious Falcon 6, a
biennial, Qatar-hosted multinational joint exercise, Nov. 16-20."
Another shipbuilding fail: "The US Navy is cancelling its Constellation frigate program following
months of cost overruns and delays but plans to keep two vessels that
are already being built in Wisconsin." Getting on the right path requires getting off the wrong path. Could sloops-of-war finally get numbers?
Reports of hazing and bullying in the military are up. This should be addressed of course, while maintaining tough training. But I'll ask if troops are in part mistaking tough training for hazing and bullying?
The Army wants up to 30,000 XM1208 improved cluster 155mm shells per year. Area artillery fire is not obsolete with even cheaper precision.
Procurement in peacetime is a horror show: "The Air Force aims to keep its aging C-5 and C-17 airlifters flying
years longer than planned as it awaits a next-gen replacement[.]"
Woo! "The Army is asking industry for counter-unmanned system components that it can use to support a potential small drone interceptor program in the future[.]" I'm finally preaching to the Army choir!
Will an American "heavy hand" in Latin America erode American power in the region? That's a risk. But so is a light hand that lets enemies prey on us and our allies in the region. Supporting friends and opposing enemies seems like a good policy. And if the enemy is a outside actor locals may be fine with that.
This is a less-known danger of air defense-especially in urban areas: "Russia fired surface-to-air missiles into its own residential buildings
while responding to a large Ukrainian attack against an oil terminal on
the Black Sea[.]"
Russia: "Russia is different from the West and operates differently, especially
in wartime. Some of the differences include barbaric treatment of
Russian soldiers by their officers, and brutal conduct by Russian
soldiers when dealing with enemy prisoners or civilians going about
their business."
In praise of small drones. The capabilities are new. I don't assume battlefield recon and targeting will always be a small drone thing; and I don't assume FPV suicide drones will always be the dominant ammunition to exploit the recon.
Air Force F-35s suppressed Iranian air defenses during the Midnight Hammer operation.
Drones are a tool that could enable maneuver. Learning from the Winter War of 2022 cannot mean cutting and pasting how they are used there right now. Learn carefully, I advised in Army magazine, with a focus on expanded combined arms operations. New weapons are never silver bullets that simplify war.
The war in Ukraine is slowly pushing Russia and China closer together: "We should not cling to hopes that either China or Russia will moderate the other." That "closer" means deeper Russian submission as China's vassal is no comfort. If peace helps us reverse that trend, we must try that path to create friction.
When I saw that Catholic bishops called for action to protect Christians in Nigeria, I was prepared to be disappointed. But it was Nigerian Catholic bishops--not American bishops.
Taiwan arms up, hopefully not too late: "Taiwanese
President Lai Ching-te announced a $40 billion supplementary defense
budget on Wednesday to accelerate arms purchases and strengthen deterrence against China."
Is Britain's new Ajax armored vehicles too noisy and vibrate too much for the crew to operate safely and effectively?
Happy Thanksgiving! I have much to be thankful for in my life. Basically, keep moving forward and work the problems.
The man who ambushed and shot National Guard troops in Washington, D.C. was rescued from Afghanistan after our Skedaddle Debacle. Damn poor way to show gratitude.
I did not know about this memo establishing the policy, but it was obvious at the time that we were obscuring our failure to evacuate friends from Afghanistan with volume. Tip to Instapundit.
Somalia continues to be Somalia. But at least because of mowing the jihadi grass the jihadis are mostly--is piracy returning?--a problem inside its borders unlike the Houthi who are a wider problem with their Iran-provided anti-ship capabilities.
Nigeria: corruption and incompetence and jihadis. Oh my!
Huh: "It turns out that the modern Thanksgiving table owes more to military innovation than most families realize."
Our major enemies in cyber-space.
The 2008 terrorist "siege" of Mumbai. That didn't spark war between Pakistan and India. I worry every clash will trigger a nuclear war there. One lesson for friendly forces is "a deep understanding of the urban terrain in which they operate[.]" I advised that in Army magazine for a Narva "little green men" scenario.
Was Trump's "plan" for peace in Ukraine--which was clearly never intended to be the final plan--an effort to get Europeans to put up or shut up on defending Ukraine? Dunno. But that makes more sense than the panic about being pro-Russian.
A year of failing to get Hezbollah to disarm should be a lesson for Gaza--asking nicely doesn't work.
Military coup in Guinea-Bissau. But no worries, the general is just "transitional" for one year.
Hamas seems to have a Plan B to relocate to Syria and Lebanon.
Kaliningrad will not be reinforced by sea if there is a war: "Poland has decided to order three new submarines from Sweden."
Tomahawks to supplement Ukraine's growing strategic warfare arsenal.
Measuring and staking out the seas near China. And UUVs plus espionage for more distant waters.
Importing a fifth column seems stupid. Immigrants have been an important part of building America. But we--including Europeans--should make an effort to make sure new immigrants are builders and not takers or destroyers to continue that tradition, no?
A call for Taiwan to rely on a "porcupine" strategy as a lesson of the Winter War of 2022. Yet the porcupine has been unable to eject the Russians. Excessively focusing on a porcupine strategy will doom Taiwan.
Drone boat strikes are legal: "It is a confrontation with a dictatorship that has integrated itself
with terrorist networks, collaborates with groups sworn to America’s
destruction, funds itself through American suffering ... ." Even criminals can be killed at sea--that's what pirates are. They've traditionally been killed.
From the "Well, Duh" files: "Free-speech advocates have warned for months that the [European Union] Commission’s ‘Democracy Shield’ is less about defending democracy than defending Brussels itself." You think Vance wasn't serious? A gray dullard like von der Leyen needs opposition to be silenced.
It's long been this way in Pakistan, even if the power was sometimes bayonet-enforced policy parameters: "the generals now rule, and the civilians serve as window dressing." How long can Pakistan sustain this model?
BOOM: "The Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan will be unable to host launches until repairs are made, according to the space agency Roscosmos, marking the first time in decades that Russia has lost the ability to send people to space." In Kazahkstan? Oh.
From the "Well, Duh" files: "America’s economic stability and military readiness are only as strong
as its manufacturing base, and we must act now to restore it." Actual restoration is the hard part.
Reloading Navy VLS cells at sea is "overlooked"? I think not.
The Army will upgrade more Bradley Fighting Vehicles to the A4 configuration.
If Ukraine can't inflict a defeat on Russia's ground forces, it--and its backers--need to make hard choices about what is best for Ukraine. Russia is weaker than the Potemkin image it projects. But it may not matter. Denial of NATO entry must be contingent on continued Russia restraint and Ukrainian power.
China declares information war on Japan.
Won't say leveraging local resistance isn't a good idea: "Instead of challenging China’s maritime claims unilaterally, outside
powers would do better to collaborate more closely with Southeast Asian
claimant states."
The reports of American retreat from Russia have been greatly exaggerated: "In the last fortnight Paris, Washington, and Athens have shown signs of
solidarity with Kyiv that strengthen Ukraine and of Western unity."
I assume this means air strikes against land targets: "US President Donald Trump said Thursday that operations to curb Venezuelan drug trafficking 'by land' would begin 'very soon.'"
One soldier wounded in the Washington, DC ambush died from her wounds.
Did Britain refuse to bend the knee to Brussels (again)? "The EU and the U.K. failed to reach a deal on allowing Britain to
participate in the bloc’s €150 billion Security Action for Europe
loans-for-weapons program, the Commission and the U.K. said on Friday."
The Sainted International Community® should return to the traditional policy of hanging pirates when caught. Defense was costly: "Over two dozen warships and several dozen manned and unmanned aircraft
were involved. This force was backed by space satellite surveillance and
foreign intelligence agencies."
Russia's police force is much reduced now. But I suspect the figure is missing a zero. And then the post suffered from a sloppy cut and paste.
Change! buzzwordbuzzword Future! Um, question: Who actually defends and holds Norway's territory in the face of invasion?
A call to accelerate American-Polish military cooperation.
USA Today tries to turn a national defense problem beyond our legal jurisdiction into a law enforcement problem: "The military campaign that
has drawn criticism from legal experts, who question the legality of
using deadly military force rather than trying to apprehend suspected
trafficking vessels and their cargo."
Is China still pushing fentanyl into America? That's how I'd bet notwithstanding China's pledge. But perhaps drugs still in a closed pipeline will dwindle. Hope springs eternal.
Huh. Tip to Instapundit.
Iraq has potential for a good future but political divisions exacerbated by Iran-backed Iraqi militias threaten the fragile peace and opportunity.
Russia and Ukraine now offer financial bonuses for battlefield successes. This in part replicates past plunder bonuses for troops. But I wonder if Ukraine's infantry shortage is made worse by incentive structures that put the ability of infantry to profit at a much lower level.
Fear: "Venezuela is entering one of its most repressive periods in years,
rights monitors say, as President Nicolás Maduro faces mounting
isolation and an expanding US military presence in the Caribbean."
Well, Ohio State beat us. Not too shocking. But I hoped we'd be closer. Ah coaching ... Still, before this rebuilding year began I said I'd be happy with a 9-3 season that included a loss to Ohio. In time that feeling will win out. Winning our bowl game will speed that up.
Is Trump staging a one-man intervention to save Europe from its self-destructive path? Maybe. But make sure "Europe" means European states and not the European Union.
Is Hong Kong China's financial outreach to make China's currency a global currency? Or will the Chinese Communist Party kill the goose that lays the golden egg? Hong Kong has positive inertia from its pre-CCP days, I imagine. But this is admittedly outside my lane.
America is pivoting to Latin America. This really isn't a local focus that abandons the world. This pivot establishes a broad foundation for global power projection to keep threats away from America.
Wagner shows mercenaries are here to stay. Russia is late to the party. America certainly used contractors (mercenaries) abroad. Yet Russia made this an internal issue and not just a foreign policy tool (and did that post telegraph the Wagner revolt, or what?). And what does he mean Russia can't be held responsible?
