The Winter War of 2022 Gets the Big Push

It is interesting that Russia continues to batter forward in the Donbas rather than try to advance north from positions further west to really outflank Ukraine's Donbas defenders. Even after all this time it seems that Russia's logistic system is really only capable of sustaining offensives from positions close to Russia in the east. Can Russia finally win? If it doesn't, what happens?

Russia continues grinding forward in the east as Ukraine struggles with ammunition shortages to hang on. Ukraine is clearly husbanding its Western-equipped units because replacement equipment is not flowing in. But Russia continues to seek battlefield victory.

The war will get louder:

Budanov stated in an April 17 article in the Washington Post that Russia will launch a “big” offensive in June 2024 with the aim of seizing all of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Budanov also stated that Russian forces will try to make battlefield gains throughout 2024 as part of efforts to influence Western decision-making. Budanov had previously forecasted that a future major Russian offensive would begin in late May or early June 2024, and it is notable that Budanov has now narrowed his forecast to June and identified the likely aim of the Russian offensive. Previous major Russian offensive efforts have similarly aimed to seize the remainder of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

It seems odd that Russia persists in the east when a drive north from further west might unhinge Ukraine's defensive lines. Does Russia focus on attacks in the east because of the Dnieper River and new fortifications line make the western-most parts of their line a better place to hold with fewer troops? Or is Russia unable to sustain a logistics effort there? 

On the other hand, attempting to take Kharkiv makes sense for Russia. Foreign Minister Lavrov is the first senior Russian to claim that is an objective for the 2024 offensive. But who knows if this is a bluff. As ISW notes, it would take a lot of resources to launch a drive on the large city.

And there's this plan to generate the big push:

While the Kremlin is struggling to expand capacity and to develop modern arms that could improve its army’s battlefield performance, it has capitalized on its overwhelming advantage in numbers of soldiers, its ability to arm them with old but reliable weaponry and a willingness to endure heavy casualties.

Russia doesn't really have an overwhelming number of soldiers as much as it has an overwhelming advantage in replacing dead soldiers. And while simple weapons are better for--and necessary for--poorly trained troops, that also means there will be heavier Russian casualties.

Even with the hiccup in American military aid (seemingly about to be revived), Russia has been unable to fully exploit that to inflict a killing blow. The question now is whether Ukraine can rearm and resupply in time to meet the Russian offensive. But if they do, Russian casualties will be even higher.

If Ukraine wins the race and holds the line, inflicting even more losses on Russia, what happens? Can Ukraine attack in the west across the river on the Kherson front or finally figure out how to push through Russia's defensive belt? Or will Ukraine, too, have to focus on the east despite Russia's troops, logistics infrastructure, and fortifications there?

Or does everybody just punch their ticket for 2025?

FFS, how much longer will Russians send their men to die for Putin in Ukraine? "Russia's military death toll in Ukraine has now passed the 50,000 mark, the BBC can confirm." That's just confirmed deaths in a country that hides its losses in a firehose of falsehood.

UPDATE (Monday): Did Moscow really think this taunt through? 

The Kremlin warned that American support for Ukraine could turn into a decade-long folly[.]

So the Kremlin is telling Russians to die in large numbers for eight more years to capture Ukraine?

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Weekend Data Dump

The anti-drone screens being put up to protect armored vehicles from FPV drones in the Winter War of 2022 remind me of the chain-link fence anti-RPG screens put up around (or mounted on) armored vehicles by American troops in Vietnam. (tip):

And here's one set up when stopped (tip):

 

Obama began the Democratic love affair with mullah-run Iran. It's reached insane levels. FFS. Tip to Instapundit.

Well: "So many drones patrol the skies over Ukraine’s front lines — hunting for any signs of movement — that Ukrainian and Russian troops have little ability to move on the battlefield without being spotted, and blown up." Maybe drones are so effective now because there is little movement on the battlefield.

As you might imagine, I stand with tradition: "A report by the Congressional Research Service, a public policy research institute for Congress, found inconsistencies and exceptions to traditional ship-naming protocols stoke public perception that the process is rife with politics."

Somalia remains a clusterf**k, al Shabaab is weaker and reliant on child soldiers, but India provides a happy ending to a pirate attack.

Iran boasts a lot about fake wonder weapons, but the 400 ballistic missiles it sent to Russia will work better than the North Korean missiles: "At one point Russian launched 24 North Korean ballistic missiles at Ukrainian targets but only two of the missiles hit the targets they were aimed at."

I mentioned last week Serbia's decision to buy French fighter planes rather than Russian. This says it is really about diversification plus Russia's faltering exports. Foreign policy shift not cited.

With warning time and defense in depth, Iran's attack on Israel was defeated. Israel had help: "U.S. and British fighter jets, a Patriot missile defense system manned by U.S. troops in Iraq and U.S. destroyers off the coast of Israel, each ready to assist." I'd heard the French and Jordanians fired, and the Saudis assisted.

Biden was outraged about October 7, 2023. But: "Washington had conveyed to Tehran via Ankara that any action it took had to be 'within certain limits.'" So 1,200 on the rape and murder invasion were too many. Now we're negotiating with Iran about how many dead Jews in a day is okay. Tip to PJ Media.

The rise of leftist anti-Semitism in California. Much as OJ Simpson said he'd find the real killers of his two (alleged) victims, the FBI keeps trying to find the real anti-Semites in mythical white supremacist conspiracies.

Trump's "hush money" trial began. It's amazing that being blackmailed is now a crime. For some, of course.

Congress refuses to cease borrowing and spending when the media accuses it of heartless granny-killing "cuts". Our willingness to borrow isn't the only factor: "A series of weak auctions for U.S. Treasurys are stoking investors’ concerns that markets will struggle to absorb an incoming rush of government debt."

This was not a rehearsal for 80th anniversary D-Day landing reenactments, but is reportedly border security in modern California. Tip to Instapundit.

I just don't understand why their mental health issues have to be my problem. Tip to Instapundit. 

Using CS gas was once legal: "Russian troops are carrying out a systematic campaign of illegal chemical attacks against Ukrainian soldiers, according to a Telegraph investigation." But it is illegal now. CS isn't itself directly lethal in most cases, but it can get you killed. 

The Netherlands steps up: "The Netherlands will provide Ukraine with €4 billion (US $4.25 billion) in military aid in the 2024-2026 period, the Dutch government said in a spring budget update on April 15."

First combat use of SM-3: "Carney and Arleigh Burke have versions of the Aegis combat system that were modified to track and target ballistic missiles. The SPY-1D radar on the destroyers cues the SM-3 to attack the ballistic missile."

Another European navy displays problems: "Belgium postponed the deployment of the frigate Louise-Marie to the Red Sea for “an indefinite period of time” after the vessel failed a number of technical tests during training[.]" First the Danes and Germans. Now the Belgians.

CENTCOM: "The suicide bombing at the Kabul airport that killed U.S. troops and Afghans in August 2021 was not preventable[.]" Missing the forest for the Abbey Gate trees.

I imagine their expectations are more reliable than our Navy's: "Norway is replacing six Type 210 class boats with six Type 212CD submarines that will all be delivered by the mid-2030s. The first new sub is expected to enter service in 2029."

Their initial force was lost and stockpiles are getting depleted: "Russia may lose its ability to carry out offensive operations in Ukraine by 2025 because of a shortage of armored vehicles." But if Russia wins this year because we don't support Ukraine, that won't matter. 

Talk of the problem of cheap drone swarms requiring expensive defensive systems to defeat leaves aside what should be the solution of carpet bombing the enemy manufacturing facilities. 

Nice? "[Army] soldiers collaborated with Air Force personnel [for] seamless integration of Army and Air Force assets facilitates rapid deployment, enabling forces to respond promptly to global challenges." But without sustainment the Army troops will be dead or prisoners before too long. Army faith is so cute!

Returning the A2/AD favor: "The U.S. Army’s new ground-based launcher, capable of supporting Tomahawk cruise missiles and SM-6 [missiles], appeared for the first time in the Indo-Pacific in a deployment to the Northern Philippines for military drills."

Sounds about right: "While virtually everything that Biden has touched is falling apart, the Democratic faithful are focused on their election tampering efforts via various corrupt courts."

Yeah (tip to Instapundit): "How quickly the ‘Ceasefire Now!’ lobby turned into frothing warmongers. No sooner had Iran began its criminal bombardment of Israel than these phoney peaceniks were leaping up and down with delight." As it always has been, they have no basis for asserting moral superiority.

Cheap drones in Ukraine: "Those who dare to move day or night under the prying eyes of enemy drones 'are dead immediately,' he said." I still think there are reasons for their impact. Don't forget German soldiers on the Western front in World War II developed "the German glance." History rhymes, I suppose.

Stupid-Americans "chanted in support of the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, a movement that recently executed 13 students for ‘spreading homosexuality’. ..... The activist set is so blinded by hatred for Israel that it is even prepared to turn a blind eye to the crucifixion [or stoning to death] of gays." Via Instapundit.

Okay, now The Science! is just effing with us, right? But I bet true believers will have no problem believing both warnings. Tip to Instapundit.

Doesn't the effort to combat so-called misinformation and disinformation founder on the reality that darned few people change their minds on a subject even on 100% factual information? And the collateral damage of trying to do that is catastrophic to our society and trust in institutions.

Leftists can't read our minds, so they project their own on us. As for me, I'm willing to admit that Trump is among the last I want to lead the Republicans. But he's still better than anyone the Democrats put up. Democrats can't even admit their candidate is ... fading.

Mobilizing the federal government to help Democrats win elections. Rule of law? What rule of law? Tip to Instapundit.

Constellation woes. Is the Navy determined not to efficiently build warships? "According to the Navy, the accumulation of design changes results in only 15% commonality with the base ship. Either the source selection picked the wrong ship, or uncontrolled change mania ruined a good design." FFS. 

Russia has had an understanding with Israel about Israeli military strikes in Syria to fight Iran. Will that end? "Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to show support for Iranian aggression against Israel during a March 16 call with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. "

If the Russians aren't busy in Ukraine, this is potentially necessary: "U.S. European Command wants $22 million to replace an aging aeromedical evacuation center at Ramstein Air Base, where 'life-threatening equipment malfunctions' could put troops at risk, according to budget documents."

Training: "The United States and South Korea are carrying out their largest, annual aerial training to “deter, defend and defeat” enemies in and around the Korean Peninsula, according to an Air Force news release."

U.S. European Command wants $22 million to replace an aging aeromedical evacuation center at Ramstein Air Base, where “life-threatening equipment malfunctions” could put troops at risk, according to budget documents.

Read more at: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2024-04-16/eucom-ramstein-casualty-evacuation-13563753.html?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru
Source - Stars and Stripes

U.S. European Command wants $22 million to replace an aging aeromedical evacuation center at Ramstein Air Base, where “life-threatening equipment malfunctions” could put troops at risk, according to budget documents.

Read more at: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2024-04-16/eucom-ramstein-casualty-evacuation-13563753.html?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru
Source - Stars and Stripes

U.S. European Command wants $22 million to replace an aging aeromedical evacuation center at Ramstein Air Base, where “life-threatening equipment malfunctions” could put troops at risk, according to budget documents.

Read more at: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2024-04-16/eucom-ramstein-casualty-evacuation-13563753.html?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru
Source - Stars and Stripes

Switzerland arms up. Which disturbs me. Do they really think we'll let Russia get that far west?

China helps Russia produce weapons. So Chinese can demand submarine technology that Russia still has an edge in. I guess the last favor China granted didn't get all the tech. So Putin bows more. Chinese nukes might be aimed at Russia to liberate Far East territory. That's possible. Can Russia's nukes deter China?

I'm sure the condition is that Israel doesn't strike Iran: "The European Union will prepare to expand its sanctions on Iran in response to Tehran's attack on Israel, EU top diplomat Josep Borrell said on Tuesday after an emergency video conference of the bloc's foreign ministers." 

Huh: "Chinese submarine officers — except for engineers — tend to come from candidates with the lowest college entrance test scores[.]" Chinese submarines aren't yet good enough to hide from Western forces. So why waste the best on them? Or is it a defection fear? Is that why senior officers "babysit?" 

When our governmental institutions are failing as other than progressive advocacy groups, what do you expect? "Public confidence in US institutions, including the government and judiciary, has declined." Don't act like it's our fault we lack confidence. It's the institutions that must change.

The U.S. Senate and the Navy are arguing over who is more responsible for a too-small fleet. While Congress has some blame, the Navy has been on notice for a long time that it needs numbers. 

Yes, the missile defense now routine was once derided as impossible when Reagan proposed it. Democrats derided it as "Star Wars" and then complained when conservatives embraced the name and made it work. That said, ICBMs are a much more difficult challenge.

How can we possibly negotiate any lasting peace settlement with Putin given his many batshit crazy notions about threats to Russia? He'll violate any agreement simply based on his conviction we tricked him or are ourselves plotting to exploit the agreement.

Doesn't this cripple it for fighting other tanks--or even seeing them? "A new example of a Russian 'turtle tank' with a shed-like metal cover on top to help protect against drone attacks, especially by ... first-person view (FPV) kamikaze types, has emerged on the battlefield." Combined arms, people.

Not peace protesters. On the other side. On the bad side.

He speaks of China, Russia, and Iran (Persia): "The ghosts of empire are haunting Eurasia." But don't forget Turkey (Ottoman Empire), jihadis (the Islamic Caliphate), and the proto-imperial European Union, as I recently observed.

If the European Union strips away the pesky prefix of its proto-imperial project, will it be a Brussels bureaucratic dictatorship of grey apparatchiki or green men of a caliphate?

Is an Asia NATO the key to containing China? I have my doubts. Although I don't rule it out that my doubts can be overcome. Especially if a number of states in Asia increase the range of their military reach.

Is China preparing for war? "Developments under way suggest Taiwan will face an existential crisis in single-digit years, most likely in the back half of the 2020s or front half of the 2030s." Hmmm. Is it necessarily for all the marbles? And is there another target?

Wondering if our military is engaged in spreading misinformation and disinformation on behalf of Hamas.

Does Biden have an Iran strategy? The author thinks not. Maybe it's just a furball of hate for Netanyahu and love for mullah-run Iran and Michigan's electoral votes. But there's a strategy--Obama's strategy. Get used to a nuclear-armed, nutball mullah regime with ballistic missiles. That's the path.

As Hamas rapists and murderers are turned into folk hero victims by the Left, recall that they also tried to do that to Saddam's Baathist scum.

Brace yourselves, but this "top priority program" is behind schedule: "The U.S. Navy’s Columbia SSBN (ballistic missile submarine) program is an effort to design and build a new class of twelve SSBNs to replace the Navy’s current force of 14 aging Ohio-class SSBNs." Also, it uses pulse jet propulsion.

You know, I wouldn't be too shocked if Egypt sends ground forces to Yemen to battle the Houthis, financed by the Saudis, to protect income from Red Sea commercial sea traffic through the Suez Canal. Not sure how effective it would be. But Egypt has waged war there before. 

Australia will focus on amphibious warfare: "It’s a strategy that critics argue too little, too late, not boosting spending quickly enough and buying most of its new capabilities more than five years from now." Nothing is ever fast enough or large enough. Starting to keep China far away is good.

Ukraine isn't interested in getting the A-10 as the U.S. Air Force phases it out. But an unnamed country is interested, with speculation pointed at Poland or Romania.

I just wish Biden wasn't so stubborn in refusing to defend our southern border, which led to Republican delays: "Ukraine and Israel both desperately need the military weapons that are being held up by Congress’ failure to pass a funding package for the two countries at war[.]"

Army troops seem to like their new XM7 rifles and XM250 automatic rifles with the XM157 fire control.

From SDI to shooting down Iran's aerial blitz. But a fully layered missile defense does much more. A lot of Iran's ballistic missiles failed on launch or soon thereafter. A true defense doesn't rely on accidents and poor construction.

Normally I'd say that accidents can happen when production is increased: "Explosion at BAE's 155mm artillery shell filling facility, Glascoed, in Wales!" Plus a small fire here. But: "German authorities arrested two men suspected of spying for Russia and membership of a terror group planning acts of sabotage[.]"

Basically, the recruiting pool for concentration camp guards. Tip to Instapundit.

So where's the Biden impeachment over interfering with aid to Ukraine for his own personal goals? Tip to Instapundit.

The title is misleading. The proposal is about reforming contracting regulations to encourage industry to seek Navy shipbuilding and maintenance business in order to expand our shipbuilding capacity. Outside of my lane, but in principle it sounds good to me.

This has been long promised: "Flight tests overseen by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and the Air Force have demonstrated safe and effective employment of an autonomous fighter jet enabled by AI, including in 'nose-to-nose' dogfighting against a human F-16 pilot, according to officials."

Yeah: "the question of what happens if Russia prevails in Ukraine is no longer a matter of debate. Russia’s persistence there and the disappointing result of last year’s Ukrainian counteroffensive have convinced many European leaders that Putin will head for their countries next if he is not stopped in Ukraine."

Russian and Chinese pilots and air defense troops shot at Americans during wars in Korea and Vietnam. America isn't likely to send troops to Ukraine. But could NATO states pay ex-military contractors to help with air defenses behind the lines? And F-16s, too. Hey, Russia set the rules.

Defending the status of international waters: "The U.S. 7th Fleet said a Navy P-8A Poseidon flew through the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday, a day after U.S. and Chinese defense chiefs held their first talks since November 2022 in an effort to reduce regional tensions."

So the French prime minister is going to crack down on rising violence by "right wing" teenagers in schools. It is only in paragraph five that we read he also noted "increased 'Islamist' influences."

It's about time! "SpaceX and Elon Musk are choosing to go to the moon. The moon orbiting and moon landing missions should be within this decade and they will make a permanently manned moonbase as well." When I watched 2001: A Space Odyssey as a child, I saw the year as one of wonders! But no.

The man who oversees Science journals content testified "he and his peers fell short by failing to better explain to the public that science is a 'work in progress'" in regard to Covid 19. But those who said science is a process and not tablets brought down from Mount CDC were called murdering science deniers. Tip.

European pacifism has enabled Putin's invasion of Ukraine. But they want "peace" so nobody notices the blood on their hands. Pacifism and a refusal to believe the West is superior tilt the battlefield to the enemy's favor.

Even New Zealand? " Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon agreed on Thursday to deepen defence cooperation and expressed serious concern over the South China Sea, where the Philippines and China have had maritime run-ins." Huh.

Just in case: "Philippines and US forces will sink a target ship, retake an island and sail in waters facing the South China Sea in joint military drills that will start next week[.]"

But Iran denies it has ever pursued nukes: "The U.S. announced a fresh set of sanctions on Iran targeting the production of unarmed aerial vehicles Thursday as Tehran warned Israel it would review its official stance on nuclear weapons if its atomic facilities were attacked." And Iran has cash from lifted sanctions.

Huh. There will be a federal prosecution on this, right? LOL. Tip to Instapundit.

America should have sunk it or boarded it months ago: "An Iranian ship suspected of providing intelligence to the Houthis is sailing home." It provided targeting information for Houthi missile and drone attacks at sea. Why didn't we do something about it? Oh, right.

Away from the front lines, Ukraine continues to inflict pain on the Russians. But if the main land front falters as Russia hammers Ukraine's army, none of it will matter.

I find it demeaning and insulting to suggest that non-elected Democrats wield the real power in the White House. Accurate. But still demeaning and insulting. If this is what "our democracy" looks like, I want no part of it. I'll take plain democracy without modifiers, please. And with rule of law, of course.

I think Trump should vow to end the cannibal scourge--an Axis of People Eaters--that has plagued our soldiers. Make the media explain why Trump is saying that. Tip to Instapundit.

It's not good: "The Navy said Thursday, April 17, 2024, that its four shipyards would get a “C+” if graded on their ability to repair ships damaged in a sustained military conflict." I fear the self-assessment was inflated to avoid encouraging China.

Okay: "The U.S. Army plans to complete its multidomain task force structure by fiscal 2028[.]" I have concerns if this is just being a Navy auxiliary. But if it is getting long-range firepower to work around the Air Force apparent lack of interest in helping the Army in its core competency, okay!

Big, if true: "Ukraine on Friday said its forces had shot down a Russian Tu-22 bomber mid-air for the first time." Ukraine said it used a modified Soviet-era S-200 (old school SAM-5) missile. Good news even if a mechanical malfunction. But ultimately the war will be determined by the ground forces. 

Old school: "Ukrainian truck-mounted machine guns use thermal scopes and tablet computers to receive target information that allows the vehicles to get into position to shoot down the Russian Shahed cruise missiles with machine gun fire." They destroy 40% of the missiles.

Where the Patriot batteries are. And the missile's back story.

That China-Russia-Iran axis is less than meets the eye: "While concerning to a degree, this axis is, currently, more rhetorical than real." I'd add North Korea to what is at its core a Russia-China issue. But I agree we shouldn't give the axis more credit than it deserves.

FLASH OVERRIDE: I would like to announce that I'm gender static. /NOTHING FOLLOWS/

Our banana republic isn't defined only about weaponization of our laws: "The astronomical rise in the U.S. national debt poses 'significant risks' to the global economy and threatens to continue fueling high inflation, according to a new warning from the International Monetary Fund." Tip to Instapundit.

It was this spectacle that convinced me to never vote for a Democrat at any level of office when before I'd been open to it below the federal level affecting foreign and defense policy. As is well known, rants should be dignified. Tip to Instapundit.

It's a crime that Biden refused to secure our border and let Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan swing in the wind to avoid doing his damn basic duty. To be fair, no matter what Biden promised about securing the border, he wouldn't have done it.

Japan has a light carrier again. China effed up.

When you see those pro-Hamas protesters carrying black-on-yellow signs, be aware that they are scumbag Marxist-Leninists from the International ANSWER organization that never met a thug enemy of America they didn't love. I don't know why black on yellow is ANSWER's signature style, but it is.

"Mean girls" rising? "Epitomized by the congressional 'Squad,' radicalized women are driving the party ever further to the leftist fringe on issues such as embracing Hamas, apocalyptic climate policies, mass illegal immigration, and transgenderism." Hmmm. Seems like a lot of "mean boys," too. Via Instapundit.

Haredi opposition to defending Israel.

I've long suspected leftist eagerness to transform America through open borders would backfire: "Latinos and other immigrants also tend to be largely patriotic in their attitudes, while progressive youth have the least degree of attachment to the nation." Anybody can become an American--except progressives.

Huh: "Combine the problem of sinking cities [almost half of the 82 major cities] with China's massive population, and as the researchers point out in their study, you have a recipe for a human and infrastructural disaster." And a political disaster? Damn shame.

Here's Australia's new defense strategy: "Australia’s strategic environment demands a fundamentally new approach to the defence of Australia and its interests. " I don't see it as a new strategic approach as much as it is cutting other defense functions to focus on it. 

Israel's aerial demonstration over Iran--it really wasn't a strike--knocked out an Iranian air defense radar protecting important Iranian nuclear facilities. Israel's "strike" was only a warning of what Israel could do if Iran repeats its direct attack on Israel. Although I worry that such a warning is too late.

I'll grant this will worry China about Western technology: "China will be re-calibrating its plan to seize Taiwan to take into account lessons learned from Iran’s failed attack on Israel, defence experts say." On the other hand, China might not telegraph its initial salvo as Iran did.

To be clear, unlike the way headlines imply, Argentina is not seeking to join NATO: "Argentina formally requested on Thursday to join NATO as a global partner[.]" A partner is different than an ally.

Oh no: "A military base in Iraq housing a pro-Iranian militia has been damaged in an explosion, killing one and wounding eight, security officials there have said." Anyway ...

Good: "The US Navy’s USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier recently fired RIM-116 Rolling Airframe Missiles in the Pacific Ocean in what appears to align with the service’s ongoing effort to improve, refine, upgrade and maintain critical elements of its 'layered ship defenses.'" But are carriers predator or prey?

The U.S. military anticipates re-opening the aid flow: "Many U.S. weapons are already positioned in stores across Europe that could be pulled immediately for Ukraine, the first official said. Some materiel could reach Ukraine in days; others may take weeks." I said I hoped we had the aid locked and loaded.

My, my. The European Union has been punishing Britain for Brexit. But the EU has apparently decided it needs Britain more than Britain needs the EU. Good. That's leverage. Until recently, the EU saw Britain as a bigger enemy than Russia.

Brazil's geopolitical moment? "Brazil’s enduring aspiration for great-power status will receive a significant boost through its leadership of the G20, BRICS and COP conferences in 2024–25." Brazil is the country of the future. And always will be.

Interesting that Democrats may have made a one-time deal to vote to sustain Republican Speaker Johnson for bringing the Ukraine military aid bill up for a House vote. After that it will be up to majority of Republicans to stop the caucus from forming a circular firing squad. Democratic control would be worse.

Pro-Russian Moldovans allege that the Moldova government is "Russophobic." Point of order: It is isn't a phobia when Russia actually is out to get Moldova.

Oh? "Putin recently advocated for migrant labor as the only viable solution for Russia’s ongoing and future labor shortage." Or maybe stop killing off young Russian men sent to conquer Ukraine; and stop driving young Russian men into fleeing abroad to avoid dying in Ukraine? 

Good: "The House of Representatives has finally approved billions of dollars in new US military aid for Ukraine to help combat Russia's invasion." The article finally notes the border issue but does not say that Biden refused to control the border, preferring to let Ukraine dangle rather than protect America directly.

Thanks, Putin: "The Ukraine War created disruptive shortages worldwide." Russian attacks have damaged Ukrainian energy, water, and sewage systems. Russia needs to be defeated.

Iran's proxy network.

Fingers crossed: "Maldivians voted in parliamentary elections Sunday, in a ballot crucial for President Mohamed Muizzu, whose policies are keenly watched by India and China as they vie for influence in the archipelago nation." China wants a longer string of pearls. But we have options, too.

And of course, military aid to Israel and Taiwan was passed by the House when it passed Ukraine aid. But helping Israel defeat Hamas was expected notwithstanding the loud pro-Hamas element in the Democratic Party; as was aid to Taiwan to resist a potential Chinese invasion.

Xi reorganizes cyber, EW, and space assets: "The changes are aimed at better adapting China’s military to the 'informatization' conditions of modern warfare ... The restructuring will lead to 'better deployment” of satellite systems, cyberspace, and when conducting electronic warfare[.]" Is this for political control?

Democrats really undermine the reality that aid to Ukraine is for America's security through Ukraine and not a gift to Ukraine: "House Democrats erupted in cheers and applause when the bill passed, with several lawmakers waving Ukrainian flags on the floor." Democrats confuse me:

Israel's "Next" War?

Hezbollah may fund its operations with its overseas empire, but the main front is southern Lebanon to attack Israel. What will Israel do to prevent Hezbollah from attacking Israelis again?

This CSIS report describes the situation Israel faces with Hezbollah illegally dug in throughout southern Lebanon in their own proto-state that defies Lebanese control. It describes four main options for Israel to cope with Hezbollah's far larger rocket and missile threat:

There are at least four options: (1) return to the pre–October 7 status quo and emphasize deterrence, (2) start an all-out war with Hezbollah to destroy the group’s capabilities and force it to comply with Israel’s demands, (3) engage in a limited war with Hezbollah to put pressure on the group and push its forces further from the Israeli border, and (4) use coercive diplomacy to better implement UNSCR 1701.

The report goes into more detail.

What are the implications of these options? Let's go through them.

Deterrence.

I don't rule this out. Because despite screwing the pooch in 2006, Hezbollah has been relatively quiet since then. I have to believe they were hurt despite boastful talk. Further, Hezbollah was bloodied after being ordered into Syria to defend Assad's regime. And Hezbollah has not answered the call to arms from Hamas to join the war--and I thought it was unlikely Hezbollah would join in--even after nearly six months of war in Gaza. Hezbollah might see what Israel did to Hamas and Gaza when enraged and decide, at least in the short term, that being as quiet as church mice is the best option.

The Biden administration would certainly be happy if Israel stood down and followed this path. And the administration might punish Israel by withholding military aid for failing to rely on deterrence. Ultimately, Israel can't afford to alienate America. Occasional rough patches are survivable. But the Democratic Party coalition has developed a sizable and fanatical constituency that would prefer Israel be wiped out. Israel has serious problems if support for Israel is partisan and relies on who wins American elections. Israel might have to rely on nukes--even actual use--to maintain their security in the medium term. But that would guarantee enemies will pursue nukes, alienate America and the West, and ultimately require Israel to expand and use nukes to prevent hostile states from going nuclear.

Or accept the inevitability of defeat and escape to the West. Which is looking shaky as sanctuaries as anti-Semitic and ... ah ... "excitable" migrants from Moslem areas increase their presence and coercive influence on Western governments and societies, you must admit.

I don't even rule out that Hezbollah is evolving into a criminal organization--that overseas financial empire has effects--that values cash more than it values killing Jews. Killing Jews might be more of a brand slogan than a practical objective.

Further, after the pain of dealing with smaller Gaza--pain that is not over yet--will Israel prefer even a faux peace along the Lebanon border? Israelis could conceivably think they should solve the long-term problem of Gaza after major ground combat operations end before throwing their military into an even bigger and costlier war. After all, while talk of Hezbollah being "next" is in the air, a lot of people claimed the Iraq War was just the first of a series of wars Bush 43 planned for the region. I thought that was nonsense. But if true, the cost of winning in Iraq--yes, we did, and I hope the Biden administration defends the win against the love of its life, mullah-run Iran--obviously derailed such plans. That could be the reality of this war against Hamas. You know if the effort to "de-Nazify" Gazans fails or falters in the future, many will rightly or wrongly claim Israel got "distracted" from Hamas by turning against Hezbollah. America experienced that false claim, too.

My guess is this is the most likely course of action for Israel in the near term.

All-out War.

The seeming emphasis on air power with ground forces limited to the border region seems to exacerbate the limits of Israel's Iron Dome defenses. With longer range and even precision weapons, even an all-out war in a limited theater might be doomed to fail. Can America sustain Israel's fight given Ukraine's needs and the need to build up American ammunition stockpiles? Would Biden punish Israel by withholding resupply of even Iron Dome rockets? Already in the smaller Hamas War, the Biden administration is putting pressure on Israel to stop their offensive short of battlefield victory. Biden has even raised the option of withholding military aid.

But perhaps the shock of the October 7, 2023 Hamas slaughter, rape, and kidnapping invasion makes enough Israelis resolved not to endure that again. Perhaps Israelis think the time to deal with Hezbollah is now or never. Perhaps the failure of the Biden administration to derail Iran's nuclear weapons drive makes Israelis think a nuclear-armed Iran under the mullah nutballs might rule out a major effort to end the northern threat. The nutballs might not be deterred by Israel's nukes.

My view is that if Israel goes big, it needs to go all the way to the Bekaa Valley to seriously rip apart Hezbollah's infrastructure and kill Hezbollah fighters plus their logistics and command personnel to make it harder to rebuild the threat to Israel after Israeli forces pull out of Lebanon.

I think the chance of this course of action is very low in the near term.

Limited War.

This also stresses Israel's Iron Dome and costs a lot with the air strikes and artillery fire needed. It has the advantage of being less costly in the short run because it has lesser objectives. And it has the advantage of initially--but wrongly--seeming like a more restrained and therefore more compassionate and less costly approach to defeating Hezbollah.

But it will achieve less. Hezbollah will retain longer-range weapons north of the Litani River. And Hezbollah can save its assets by retreating north of the river into a sanctuary. Hezbollah could fire at Israeli troops in southern Lebanon and leave irregulars and insurgents behind while Israel conducts operations; and bombard Israel itself with longer-range weapons from the sanctuary. And it will be easier for Hezbollah to claim a glorious victory over the Israelis with rocket attack proof of not just surviving Israel's wrath but by continuing the mission statement of killing Jews. 

That might compel Israel to remain in its narrow theater longer trying to erase the image of successful Hezbollah "resistance". That will trigger the exposure of the false compassion of restraint I described above. And it will make it less likely that all-out war can be decisive because it will have wasted time and any Western patience if that even exists after the Hamas war. And because by letting Hezbollah retreat to the sanctuary, make it harder to trap its forces and administrators who are closer to a better sanctuary in Syria.

I think the chance of this course of action in the near term is in the low-to-medium range.

Coercive Diplomacy for UNSCR 1701.

The main problem is that the current mission under UNIFAIL essentially sides with Hezbollah--for the survival of lightly armed UN personnel if no other reason. If coercion is going to be used to create an effective UNIFIL to keep Hezbollah from remaining in southern Lebanon where Hezbollah has amassed a large rocket force, it seems like the first three options are the means to achieve that. 

What lesser means--which Israel has presumably at least implicitly used the last 18 years--can get the UN to do more? In the face of Russian or Chinese UN Security Council vetoes? In the face of propaganda that America will fall for to rescue Hezbollah as America is doing in Gaza by pushing for and carrying out logistic support for Hamas humanitarian aid?

I mean, if Israel chooses to focus on deterrence, it might tell itself it is also going to use coercive diplomacy to get Hezbollah out of southern Lebanon. But that will be a soothing fantasy designed to conceal that Israel won't try to de-fang Hezbollah. 

I think the chance of this course of action alone is low. 

I think the chance is high that it will be claimed under the deterrence option but doomed to fail. 

I think the chance is certain it will be tried with either all-out or limited war as the hammer that makes coercive diplomacy more effective. 

But I suspect the West will ultimately rescue Hezbollah from coercive diplomacy by treating them as victims rather than terrorists who occupy portions of a sovereign member of the United Nations and undermine its sovereignty in order to be able to kill Jews. Germany set the template after World War I. It works. Under certain administrations.

So there you go. 

I have no real idea how Israel will judge its options. But Israel must consider that Iran is now willing to openly reach out to its proxies to support Hezbollah:

A series of senior Axis of Resistance officials have met with senior Iranian officials—including the supreme leader—in March, likely to coordinate and prepare plans for their reaction to a wider Israeli operation into southern Lebanon.

Absent other considerations, I'd consider all-out war as I described it (which would really be a large-scale, deep raid) the most likely Israeli course of action. But it is not something that will be weighed in isolation. The Hamas war has happened and that complicates the issue. Unless Hezbollah makes the decision for Israel by initiating large-scale rocket attacks against Israeli civilians. 

Whatever Israel chooses, it can't afford to make jihadis look like the "strong horse."

Have a super sparkly Middle Eastern day.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post. 

Once More With Feeling! And a New Name.

Once more, we're told "one weird trick" will save Taiwan from being conquered by China. Just click the link and behold!

America needs a "new" strategy to defend Taiwan:

Taking advantage of widely available aerial, naval and undersea drones, “hedge forces” could deny access to an aggressor. Ukraine used this approach to sink half Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and restore its maritime trade while Houthi drones under and above the water have upended worldwide shipping traffic with their attacks across the Red Sea. The U.S. military should exploit these same technologies to disrupt or slow a Chinese invasion. Tangled up in a hedge force’s drones, China’s troop transports and their escorts would also be easier targets for U.S. missiles. 

This isn't really new. It's just another name for "porcupine," "hedgehog," or--really--"Hezbollah" strategies that worship at the altar of the false god of asymmetrical warfare:

"Asymmetrical" concepts seem to miss the point that any weapon system or type of military unit has weaknesses that another weapon or type of unit must cover. That's why we embrace combined arms within the ground services and jointness between the services. It's rock, paper, scissors.

When I hear about asymmetric defenses, it almost always means that someone thinks that a country can escape the burden of defense spending by some clever device that undermines the enemy's entire expensive arsenal. Just because a country decides to use weapons other than carriers to fight carriers or weapons other than tanks to fight tanks doesn't make them asymmetric. It makes it war.

The main new thing is that it restricts itself to naval warfare. But as I commented before about the Ukraine evidence:

Anybody who says Ukraine's success against Russia's Black Sea Fleet should cause China to worry about what Taiwan could do ignores that Ukraine has inflicted this damage over 25 months. Taiwan would need to inflict multiples of that damage in 25 hours.

Still, at least the authors don't try to claim their one neat trick can deter the Chinese. I have my doubts about our ability to calculate that sort of thing.

As for the Houthi, we're going through the motions of fighting them. 

Ultimately, disrupting or slowing a Chinese invasion of Taiwan isn't enough if the Chinese get ashore and stay there.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post. 

A-Whacks

Aerial drones fired by the Houthi are straining the ability of our Navy to protect the sea line of communication through the Red Sea. And Iran's massed drone and missile attack on Israel required lots of expensive defensive systems to smash up. Could a combination AWACs/missile truck plane provide a cheaper defense than expensive Standard missiles launched from surface ships?

We're expending expensive missiles that can't be reloaded at sea to knock down Houthi anti-ship drones and ballistic missiles. What if an enemy more capable than the Houthi fight our ships near their shores? And don't forget that if the Houthi keep shooting at us, one will eventually get through from error or bad luck--or just probability over a long enough period of time.

And the Iranian attack on Israel dramatically showed that massed drone and missile strikes are a threat to land targets, on top of the routine Russian use of such weapons against Ukraine.

The Kamikaze experience in World War II forced the Navy to adapt. The Navy needed advanced warning and lots of fighter planes and anti-aircraft weapons to knock down these human brain-directed cruise missiles. Electronic brains mean more of those cruise missile-type weapons can be fired.

America developed AWACS from the civilian 707 to create the most effective airborne early warning plane that could also control the air battle (our first early warning plane emerged in World War II using modified Avenger torpedo planes).

The Navy P-8 armed anti-submarine and patrol plane is based on the 737. It can search and strike.

I've addressed the idea of airborne missile trucks and wondered if the B-1 bomber could be used for air defense work--an AABONE.

Why not combine all of them on a civilian airliner? We're shrinking the electronics so that the early warning and control can be put in smaller planes. So there would be room for weapons, too. And they could be linked with other planes and with more conventional assets given that shooters and sensors can be separated.

For the Vampire ground-based anti-drone system, we have developed smaller air-to-air rockets--APKWS 70mm laser guided rockets--that are cheaper than the sophisticated air-to-air missiles:

These weigh only 15 kg (32 pounds) each and have a range of about a thousand meters when fired from the ground. Vampire can be used to detect and fire APKWS laser guided rockets at air and even ground targets. Any UAV, cruise missile or helicopter within range is vulnerable. Vampire is designed to be reconfigured, which is the kind of system Ukrainians prefer. The Fletcher launcher is designed to use the new, longer range APKWS rockets that gain additional range by having a larger rocket motor which makes the APKWS longer.

The rocket can go nearly 7 miles when fired from aircraft. A lot could be packed into a commercial airliner converted to an air defense aircraft, right? There could also be a smaller number of longer-range sophisticated air-to-air missiles carried.

Such a plane based on land air bases could provide protection for warships sailing close to shore where massed drones and rockets could be fired at the ships.

And they could be used as a mobile reserve to protect ground targets as well, which both Israel and Ukraine demonstrate is necessary. They'd certainly be cheaper than using fighter planes and lots of advanced missiles.

Call it A-Whacks. 

I'll pause while you applaud. Really, I'm flattered. Don't. Stop. Okay, don't stop.

But the name will go nowhere. My brilliant suggestions have never gone anywhere.

Although of course the cost of attack drones versus defensive systems isn't the only cost-effectiveness angle. You have to consider the cost of what you are protecting. But a cheaper and more easily replenished weapon is an advantage in a long campaign.

And as long as I'm on this general topic. Could aerial drones be used for defending against incoming missiles? Funny enough, I discovered an earlier entry into that suggestion.

Anyway, the A-Whacks and point defense drones would all be part of a layered defense in depth that should also include knocking out the missile launchers on the ground before they are fired. 

UPDATE: Timely:

The US Navy now has a shortage of air and space defense missiles, especially the SM-6 missiles that can be used against aircraft, ballistic missiles, other ships, and even low earth orbit satellites. These missiles were used at a high rate during the recent actions in the Red Sea to prevent Iran-backed Yemen Shia rebels from hitting commercial ships with Iranian missiles. SM-6 missiles were used to intercept the Iranian missiles fired at ships.

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post. 

The Budding Friendship in INDOPACOM

America and India are drawing closer together as we both confront China and as Putin's invasion of Ukraine has forfeited any Russian option but being China's vassal. What should the America-India relationship look like?

This is correct:

The era of great power competition calls for Great Power Partnerships. Size matters. As the United States engages in competitive or adversarial relationships with Asian and Eurasian powers China and Russia, it is prudent for it to seek a Great Power Partnership. Conversely, India is engaged in localized hostilities with its neighbors China and Pakistan, and finds its one-time friend Russia reduced to being a dependent of China. Realpolitik calls for the largest American and Asian nations, as democracies, to forge a Great Power Partnership to their mutual advantage. 

Since the Bush 43 administration and subsequent Democratic and Republican administrations, America has forged closer ties with India to counter China's growing air and naval threat in the western Pacific.

And India, despite a long record of non-alignment during the Cold War with a sizable dose of anti-Americanism (to be fair, we did support Pakistan for a long time until their support for jihadis in Afghanistan and elsewhere got to be too much for us to let slide), is cooperating as the Chinese threat to India's territory continues to grow.

India would also like to push their naval shield further east. The Andaman Islands are a major barrier. That shield gives India options during a land border struggle with China. And a forward shield would limit China's ability to exploit its land-based missile threat to India's navy.

And keeping Taiwan fighting would really extend the shield far from India. The alignment for India to link up with is already forming:

The leaders of America and Japan unveiled a lengthy list of defense agreements Wednesday in what U.S. President Joe Biden called “the most significant upgrade in our alliance since it was first established.”

The two countries will improve their respective command-and-control systems, form an industrial council to build weapons together, network their missile defense systems with Australia’s and start a joint exercise with the United Kingdom, among other agreements. For the first time, America will also adjust its force structure in Japan to better work with Tokyo’s defense forces.

While America would benefit from a China focused on interior threats, India doesn't have to worry about America causing China to pose a threat to India. China is doing that all on its own with persistence over time. And India could help themselves and other democracies by using whatever influence it still has to flip Russia to a position of strategic sanity.

America and India must seriously think about how to deepen our defense ties and complicate China's strategic position. And if the West helps Ukraine enough, perhaps even Putin will see that getting out of Ukraine to repair relations with the West is the best Russian--and his own personal--survival strategy. That could be India's opportunity to flip Russia.

UPDATE: Timely:

As India’s ‘Act East’ policy focussing on Southeast Asia moves into its 10th year, it is time for New Delhi to spell out more clearly how it aims to enhance its security and strategic partnerships with ASEAN nations. 

That's the step before a Fight East policy. 

I deleted the link about using DALL-E for the image. Grabbed that from the InterTubes. Bad week to quit sniffing glue, I guess.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post. 

Russia Has No More Than Limited Territorial Ambitions?

We can totally trust that Russia has limited appetite for conquest?

So no worries about Russia other than stopping Russia as a warm up to preparing to stop China?

Russia chiefly seeks to rebuild a sphere of influence in its neighborhood. It can also stoke trouble far afield, notably in sub-Saharan Africa. But unlike its predecessor it does not aspire to global domination. The Soviet Union’s perennial insecurities, delusions of grandeur, and desire for recognition fuelled its quest for global power (outlined in a forthcoming book by the historian Sergey Radchenko). For Russia, with 140 million people and an Italy-sized GDP ($2 trillion), such ambitions would be fanciful. [emphasis added]

So ... enslaving people [checks notes] nearby is okay?

At least the author wants to stop Russia in Ukraine. I'm fully on board that. But his foundation for pivoting to writing about China gives ammunition to those who say Ukraine should be abandoned rather than delay that future preparation for the Mister Good War threat of China.

But the claim that Russia doesn't have perennial insecurities, delusions of grandeur, and a desire for recognition is astounding. Really? That's what we're going with?

Further, isn't saying it is safe for Russia to have some territorial ambitions because a Russia with just 140 million people and a GDP of a mere $2 trillion can't aspire to more ambitions cutting off the "lather, rinse, repeat" process at the initial lather? 

If Russia starts restoring its empire--just a little in its "natural" sphere of influence--its population and GDP will go up. How much do they have to go up before global power ambitions are no longer fanciful?

And if the Russians move west, how long before their troops are close enough to the Rhine to convince some Europeans that it would be safer and cheaper to cut deals with Russia? I've long argued that Europe had a global role in the Cold War because of the importance of Europe. If Russia controls, dominates, or intimidates Western Europe, that is global power.

Oh that's silly, you say. But where is the natural limit of Russian sphere-of-influence ambitions? The Elbe River wasn't enough for Russia in the Cold War and they aimed for the Rhine. Hell, they aimed for more but for American use of the atomic bomb on Japan.

Still, if the author thinks we have to stop Russia in Ukraine before being able to fully cope with China, I'm fine with that. I just don't get why the author took a detour down "Russia isn't so bad of a threat" Boulevard.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post. 

The Winter War of 2022 Gets Needlessly Fragile

Lack of supplies after two years of war can shake the morale of even the most patriotic. Ukraine's army is subject to this effect no less than Washington's army at Valley Forge in the winter of 1777-1778.

Said Ukraine's president, Zelensky:

The situation at the front is "difficult, but stabilized" at the moment, Zelenskiy said, speaking in an interview that aired on April 6 on Ukrainian television.

At the moment. And stabilized means Ukraine slowly cedes ground to the invaders. Can even that level of "stabilization" last beyond weeks or months?

Zelensky warned of the effects of lack of Western support:

Zelensky stressed that Ukraine must conduct countermeasures to deprive Russian forces of the ability to prepare and conduct significant offensive efforts and not only rely on defensive operations. Zelensky stated that striking Russian force concentrations is one such countermeasure but that Ukrainian forces lack long-range weapons to strike Russian force concentrations and other targets necessary to undermine Russian operations. Senior Ukrainian officials have long called for timely and sustained Western military assistance that would enable Ukraine to conduct both defensive and counteroffensive operations when the timing is optimal for Ukraine to undertake such efforts, as opposed to having materiel shortages constrain Ukraine’s ability to plan and execute operations and losing opportunities to exploit Russian weaknesses.

Right now, that means lack of American support because America has the most capacity to arm and sustain Ukraine's defense against Russia's invasion.

If the West doesn't bolster Ukraine's air defenses, Russia's air force and missiles/drones may have decisive effects on Ukrainian defense industry and combat capabilities: 

The further degradation of Ukraine’s air defense umbrella would not only limit Ukraine’s ability to protect critical elements of its war effort in the rear but would also likely afford Russian aviation prolonged secure operation along the frontline. Such security would allow Russian forces to significantly increase glide bomb strikes at scale and possibly even allow Russian forces to conduct routine large-scale aviation operations against near rear Ukrainian logistics and cities to devastating effect.

General materiel shortages are making Ukraine's ground defenses more fragile: 

Continued delays in US security assistance are specifically impacting the capabilities that Ukrainian forces need to respond to the increased tempo of Russian mechanized assaults in eastern Ukraine.

The American military counted firepower when it wrongly determined Russia would quickly crush Ukraine's military in February 2022. Don't make the same mistake counting weapons and material still available to Ukraine and conclude Ukraine can continue to successfully resist Russia until we get our act together. Ukrainian troops are not machines whose predictable actions can be fed into simulations.

Because Ukrainians are paying a high price to hold off the Russians:

The stalling of crucial American aid, a distinct dimming of the world spotlight, and simple war weariness are all exacting a heavy cost. On the front lines, exhausted Ukrainian troops are rationing ammunition as they fend off the latest Russian advances, and anxiety is mounting along with the military and civilian toll.

Ukraine's troops are worn down from two years of war. They know they are in a fight for their freedom and lives. And the freedom and lives of their children. But many may wonder if America's lack of help means their death would be futile. Soldier who have bravely fought could, in those conditions, crack under constant Russian attack. As ISW warns:

Russian forces are pursuing at least three operational-level efforts that are not mutually reinforcing but let Russian forces prioritize grinding, tactical gains on a single sector of their choice at a time. Ukrainian forces will increasingly struggle to defend against these Russian efforts the longer Ukraine lacks further US military assistance.

God help them, but Ukraine doesn't mostly need a Saratoga to encourage Western governments or a Doolittle Raid to sustain Ukrainian civilian morale. Ukraine's troops really need a small, decisive Trenton and Princeton counter-attack to give them hope after the body blows they have endured. 

And Ukrainians really need resumed American military assistance. Soon.

UPDATE (Monday): Summer is coming:

Ukraine’s military chief on Saturday warned that the battlefield situation in the industrial east has “significantly worsened in recent days,” as warming weather allowed Russian forces to launch a fresh push along several stretches of the more 1,000 km-long (620-mile) front line.

Warming weather and lack of American military supplies.

You don't have to love Ukraine. Just reject trusting Russia any farther west. 

UPDATE (Monday): The developing battle for the Donbas city of Chasiv Yar is going to be key. It sure would be helpful if American military aid started flowing again so Ukraine wins that battle--whether or not Ukraine holds the city at the end of the battle.

UPDATE (Tuesday): ISW has this interesting note on Iran's strike on Israel:

Three unnamed US officials told the Wall Street Journal on April 14 that roughly 50 percent of the ballistic missiles that Iran fired at Israel either failed to launch or crashed before reaching their target. US officials stated that Iran launched between 115 and 130 ballistic missiles at Israel in its attack.

While North Korean missiles are apparently much worse than this, as I mentioned recently, Iran's are apparently not even as good as what Russia builds.

UPDATE (Tuesday): This analyst who knows far more than I ever will doesn't expect the Russian offensive to commence until later in May, at the earliest, based on historical ground conditions.

As I noted about current Russian attack intensification:

But does it represent the leading edge of a concentration of Russian ground forces for larger attacks in the coming months after spring soggy ground dries out by the summer? Is Russia trying to gain what it sees as jumping off points for a large offensive?

Even if the offensive can't take place for a month or more, Russian shaping operations--if I'm not giving the Russian leadership too much credit--are taking place now. 

UPDATE (Tuesday): Failing to aid Ukraine will not mean the war remains stalemated and somehow magically "ends":

Russian advances will accelerate absent urgent American action. US policymakers must internalize the reality that further delaying or stopping American military assistance will lead to dramatic Russian gains later in 2024 and in 2025 and, ultimately, to Russian victory.

Defeat Russia now with money or one day we will fight them with money and blood. Helping Ukraine stop Russia's drive west isn't a gift to Ukraine. It's in America's security interest. Although obviously Ukraine benefits, too, just as America benefited from French help in our Revolution despite the purpose of French help being to hurt Britain.

UPDATE (Tuesday): I'm calling BS on this article arguing negotiations were close to ending the Winter War of 2022 just weeks into Russia's invasion. At best it would have allowed Russia to reload and invade properly. Provisions in the so-called negotiations would have made Ukraine more vulnerable to future conquest. 

As for a multilateral security guarantee, Ukraine had one--the Budapest Memorandum--which Putin ripped up. Oh, but that was just an assurance, the authors say. As if Putin--purportedly panicked about Ukraine's NATO membership, a body that does guarantee security--would have allowed a NATO Lite. And Ukraine thought the assurance they had was good enough to give up its nuclear weapons inherited from the USSR.

Russian "provisional" acceptance of a deal early in the war would probably have just been for the purpose of untangling their logistics during a ceasefire leading to "peace."  

Who are these echelon-above-reality guys, anyway?

UPDATE (Wednesday): Yeah, me too: 

ISW has previously (and not always accurately) assessed how low Russian morale and exhaustion affected the prospects of Russian offensive operations, but Ukraine’s current material shortages may make it difficult for Ukrainian forces to defend against Russian forces — even those that are exhausted and unmotivated.

But Ukraine lacked the ability to attack the Russians soon enough in a large effort when earlier poor morale was evident. If you don't attack you can't really exploit enemy bad morale.

And without American aid, who knows where Ukrainian troop morale could go? Russia is attacking on a broad front, even if in small groups now because of recent casualties. 

UPDATE (Sunday): ISW discusses the pending American resumption of military aid after the House passed the bill. The Senate must pass it and the president must sign it. And even though the Pentagon is locked and loaded to send military aid, it will take weeks to have an effect on the battlefield.

Democracy is messy and sometimes slow. But that's a feature and not a bug. My memory is that on the eve of World War II, Congress renewed a military conscription law by a single vote. And Congressional Democrats certainly played games with war funding interference during the later stage of the Iraq War.

So, good. Pity Biden refuses to defend our border, too. But I imagine his administration would defy or undermine any congressional demand to protect the southern border. The issue has always been a desire by the executive branch to defend the border and not laws or funding.

But I digress.

A good chunk of the "Ukraine" aid will refill American stockpiles reduced to help Ukraine already.

UPDATE (Sunday): I imagine Ukraine will be able to increase its rates of fire for air defense and artillery ammunition even before American aid arrives. Ukraine has had to ration its ammunition not knowing how long it had to make it last. Once it has details on what is arriving, when, and for how long, Ukraine can release ammunition reserves immediately.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.